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Abstract Minimum central pressure (P_min) is an integrated measure of the tropical cyclone wind field and is known to be a useful indicator of storm damage potential. A simple model that predictsP_minfrom routinely estimated quantities, including storm size, would be of great value. Here, we present a simple linear empirical model for predictingP_minfrom maximum wind speed, a radius of 34-kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s⁻¹) winds (R_34kt), storm center latitude, and the environmental pressure. An empirical model for the pressure deficit is first developed that takes as predictors specific combinations of these quantities that are derived directly from theory based on gradient wind balance and a modified Rankine-type wind profile known to capture storm structure inside ofR_34kt. Model coefficients are estimated using data from the southwestern North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific from 2004 to 2022 using aircraft-based estimates ofP_min, extended best track data, and estimates of environmental pressure from Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses. The model has a near-zero conditional bias even for lowP_min, explaining 94.2% of the variance. Performance is superior to a variety of other model formulations, including a standard wind–pressure model that does not account for storm size or latitude (89.2% variance explained). Model performance is also strong when applied to high-latitude data and data near coastlines. Finally, the model is shown to perform comparably well in an operation-like setting based solely on routinely estimated variables, including the pressure of the outermost closed isobar. Case study applications to five impactful historical storms are discussed. Overall, the model offers a simple, fast, physically based prediction forP_minfor practical use in operations and research. Significance StatementSea level pressure is lowest at the center of a hurricane and is routinely estimated in operational forecasting along with the maximum wind speed. While the latter is currently used to define hurricane intensity, the minimum pressure is also a viable measure of storm intensity that is known to better represent damage risk. A simple empirical model that predicts the minimum pressure from maximum wind speed and size, and based on the physics of the hurricane wind field, does not currently exist. This work develops such a model by using wind field physics to determine the important parameters and then uses a simple statistical model to make the final prediction. This model is quick and easy to use in weather forecasting and risk assessment applications.